The multiplier
One formula, on every quote.
- p
- The chance every leg touches, from simulating all legs together: thousands of correlated paths, checked at the feed's own pace.
- 2·se
- Two standard errors of that simulation, added so the house never pays on a lucky draw of the model.
- 7% margin
- Fixed in rules v1. A new margin would mean a new rules version; your ticket keeps the version it was opened under.
- 1.1x – 1000x
- The range a quote can land in. Tickets the model calls near-certain or near-impossible are refused instead of priced.
The app shows p, the independent-legs figure and the margin next to every quote, so you can see exactly where your multiplier came from.
Limits
The house caps what it can owe.
Before a ticket opens, the server checks how much the house would pay if it wins, against the collateral behind it. Two tickets racing for the last room can't both get it.
Potential payout resting on, say, BTC going up, as a share of the collateral pool.
Everything that would pay if crypto, stocks or everything moved together one way.
Potential payout owed to a single player, and at most 25 open tickets.
When a ticket would cross a limit, the app says which one and offers the largest stake that still fits.
Settlement
Recorded prices decide.
Prices come from Hyperliquid's public market data. The server records a price for every market every couple of seconds and settles each ticket from those records alone.
A ticket settles the moment its last leg touches; no need to wait for the clock.
If a feed drops out and nothing proves a miss, the stake comes back in full. A miss with full data still loses.
Each settled ticket keeps the prices that decided it. The ticket page shows them.
What isn't live
Test funds until the checks pass.
Real-money play needs more than a nice site: a settlement-grade price source, a model tested on months of real prices, keys in hardware, a geofence counsel signed off, an audit, a multisig and funded collateral. This list is read live from the server.